Thursday, November 6, 2008

Challenges that face a head...

Obama graps a landslide win in United states presidential election, but the path won't be easy for him and his running mate, clearly, some of the once in a century challenge is going to test his ability....

First and foremost, the climate change:
With a growing consensus on the cause of climate change to be the emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, Obama need to tell the rely on petro American to stop the carbon emmissions by a sizeable amount. Ratifying the kyoto protocol, to provide enforcement on the reduction of carbon emmissions, become another challenge to Barack Obama...

Second, the economy.
Current crisis is going to drag America into recession, or least zero growth year for the following years. Barack Obama may imposed stricter regulations on financial market to prevent the reoccuring of another subprime crisis, but the roots problem of current crisis is still yet to be resolved. First, the deepening debt in foreign trade account indicate that America is buying more goods abroad and producing less local, furthermore , the outsourcing trend have sent many of local jobs abroad.
This raise two problems,
First, not enough job for the locals people, especially the middle income group which are hard to re-invent themselves.
Second, the america's economy heavily rely on virtual economy, which results in more vulnerable to financial crisis.

Third , the debt.
Under the Bush administration, the total debt of government had climb up to 10 trillion, about the size of America economy. As a results, large chunk of government budget is used to paid interest, where less money is available to development project, research grant, education sector, and more vitally, the healthcare and Pension scheme. Barack Obama proposed a universal Health care plan, which definitely costs government lots in the future. Unless Obama administration taking drastic action to reduced the debt in budget, America economy will soon fallen as Iceland, Mexico, and Russia, which bring a catastrophic effect to global financial market.

Fourth, iraq.
If America withdraw all the troops from Iraq, there are possibility that Iraq turned into another vietnam, where Islam Fundamentalist will control the country. Things become dangerous when Iraq close to Persian Gulf, which control Lion share of World's Crude oil surply. An economy downturn meet with oil price surge could bring Obama Approval rating down faster than free fall.

Fifth, China.
As China hold the largest Foreign exchange reserve, with its rising economy power and influence now, the relationships between America and China becoming crucial then ever before in dealing with world affairs. However, Barack Obama seems to have an idealistic view on Tibet and Taiwan, which will be harmful in dealing with china's authority. The tension arise between China and America may harm America's furthermore, not only because America import lots of cheap goodie from china to suppress inflation, but also China is now the largest buyer in many area, especially the aerocraft business which relating to at least 100000 jobs in America.

Sixth, Israel.
Israel and Palestine represent the roots of main conflicts between the western world and Islam world. Various America presidents had try to bring peace into west bank, but all end up with a disaster. If Barack Obama failed to resolve the controversy there, he will still facing the biggest enemy of the united states, the terrorist which hide well behind the shadow. The only effective way to counter the terrorist is by solving conflict between Israel and Palestine, where many America's presidents failed to do so because of their sides with Israel..

Seventh, the energy. Current oil price surge, although mainly driven by speculation, reflects how vulnerable the energy supply chain for America. The first, with global crude oil production is going to peak in a few month, the source of supply becoming limited, especially when America facing fierce combat with China in securing new oil field. Second, As the cost of production get higher, and the refinery capacity aged, the oil becoming more expensive. Third, as more portion of oil rely on middle east, south america, America is loosing power when bargain with those countries.

Eighth, the globalization. America is already facing a challenge in education system, where they are producing less percentage of scientist and engineer compared to other country. As the process of globalization goes, more local inteligents choose to stay at their country rather than going to America to do their research. The results , the innovation and creation is shift away from united states, where the two are crucial in creating wealth and jobs. Hence, reforming America's education system is one of the toughest task, which constantly ignored by both candidates during presidential campaign.

Ninth, the healthcare. With increasing healthcare cost, the Healthcare is dragging America company down, which loosing jobs to their foreign company. The cost of healthcare will continually bugs Americans, As first, Obama policy didnt guarantee the source for the funding. Second, the Bush Administration do so badly that they spend every resource they should have put on Healthcare system on tax cut. A universal heathcare solution will help protect the poor, but it will certainly cost the government more than it can afford now.

Tenth, the pension. With the babyboom aging , and the 401k scheme starts to withdraw money from the market. The pensions, for average America is becoming a hidden bomb. Imagine when servay shows 95 percent of America wont have enough money for used after retirement, the social welfare will go into bankruptcy when the peoples starts flooding to get the subsidy.

Americans saw the hope of change when they elected Barrack Hussein Obama to be the president, but the life wont change to be easier for America. Unless Barack Obama can planned ahead well and carried out the plan efficiently, his fate will soon be as Mr. Ma in Taiwan, where we saw his approval rating drop to the level of the predecessor.

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