并不民主的民主行动党?

前几天民主行动党改选中委, 让人看到了该党并不民主的一面.

首先, 是选前留传的菜单文化. 再来, 民主行动党的高职并不由党员和中央代表决定. 而是由二十位票选中委决定. 而票选中委都是由林氏父子主导. 因此实际上是林氏父子说了算, 十足共产党集权的模式. 掌握领导权的林氏父子更可根据党章委任十位中委, 等于说再下一次中委会议前, 林氏父子只要拉拢多四位, 而不是九位票选中委, 就能通过自己的政治议程.

行动党大姐郭素芯前几天关于担任高职安排的谈话更耐人寻味. 她说, 担任什么职位, 一切听从党中央的安排. 照道理一个民主的政党, 党内高职应由中央代表决定. 如今沦落到由指令来安排的地步, 更印证了行动党是林氏父子皇朝的印象. 而同时, 一名党外人士忽然间入党, 忽然间被委为中委, 忽然间当上副主席, 不仅让在基层耕耘的领袖不满, 更给人一种, 行动党党内无人才, 所以要委任党外人士, 或行动党内要上位, 就要和林氏父子搞好关系的印象.

长此以往, 难保蔡添强退党, 冯宝君不攻, 陈仪乔宁入公正的情况不会重演. 该一个不民主的政党, 不管其领导人多么英明, 都很难海纳百川般的吸引人才, 茁壮发展. 更何况, 林氏父子现在更称不上英明.

从影子内阁联想.

近日. 国会流传一分民盟的内阁名单. 明眼人一看既知是出之欲破坏民盟各党团结的人手中. 概民单上一无回教党人的副首相, 二非土著部长比土著部长多. 恐怕真实行起来, 回教党第一个要反. 然而, 这也揭露了民盟还没有做好准备筹备影子内阁以接替国阵政权的事实. 那么, 如果安华真的执政, 民盟的内阁名单会怎么定呢?
我的猜测, 首相肯定是安华. 副首相很大可能是回教党主席哈迪阿旺. 行动党当不上副首相的原因一是因为回教党不会让华华基政党做大, 二是副首相代表着接替首相的未来人选. 民盟必需要消除马来人担忧华人会有担任首相之可能的疑虑. 在此情况下, 民盟可能会效仿沙巴的模式, 设立华裔和印裔副首相, 可是这会引起沙砂土著的不满, 如果再另设一个东马副首相, 那么等于削弱副首相的政治权利, 形同儿戏. 另一个较大的可能性是任命林吉祥为代表非土著的第二副首相.
重要官职方面, 安华应该回兼任财政部长. 内政部长应该是回教党的囊中物. 在政治分配的原则下, 行动党最多只能拿到教育部长这个重要的官职, 及继承马华现有的政治职位, ( 交通部长, 房屋及地方政府部长, 卫生部长和人力资源部长). 较次要的部长职, 如国防部长, 外交部长等, 可能委任沙砂两地的议员担任.
然而民盟内阁要成事, 首先就看安华有没有能力凑足议员执政. 西马方面, 民政, 马华和国大党不会跳. 因为他们知道留在国阵还能有在下一届大选翻身的机会, 一旦加入民盟, 就得遵守现有的议席分配, 马华不甘变老二, 民政不甘变蚊子党. 所以日前翁诗杰, 陈莲花提出巫统若不改变就退出国阵云云, 应是政治博契以争取更多筹码.
因此民盟执政所需的三十个席位应来自东马, 沙巴方面, 团结党和进步党, 以及民统党应是较易拉的对象. 自由民主党由于和进步党不咬旋( 两者自山打根国会议席事件以来, 向来结仇), 应该不会跳. 沙巴巫统方面, 有一半的议员应该可以用利益拉.
砂劳越的情况就比较复杂. 以泰玛目为首的土保党向来掌握着权利. 除非有更大的权利诱惑, 否则是比较不可能跳的.
因此, 民盟拉的对象应是在土保党和沙巴巫统里和权利源头里较远的边缘派和野心派, 及其他如人联党, 团结党,等小政党. 可是同时团结党和人联党应会要求行动党撤出他们在沙砂两地的政治实力. 山打根国会议席候选人章翠玲撤消选举诉讼可能就正为这一步铺路.
这一切, 还待看安华能否补选成功. 为此国阵双管起下, 先是鸡奸疑云, 再是激起民盟议员贪污, 公正党党员殴打记者事件. 另一方面. 则提前宣布调低油价, 并向峇东埔华裔选民大派华小拨款等糖果. 可想而知, 在民盟夺权之前, 双方必会各出奇谋.

thought on monty hall problem

i originally think that staying at my choice have better chance to win, but now, switching have 2/3 chance of winning compared to staying which only 1/3.

One interesting thought:

Let say between Abd, Anw and Naj , one of them is the "car" , which can truly lead the country. Now , we have choosen Abd. By some mean , the host ( god or Allah or whatever) , open another door Naj and show goat behind( indicate Naj is not the car) . So does switching to Anw lead a better chance to win the car ( a better leader)?
interesting, isn't it?

Monty halls problem.

Suppose you're on a game show and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. The car and the goats were placed randomly behind the doors before the show. The rules of the game show are as follows: After you have chosen a door, the door remains closed for the time being. The game show host, Monty Hall, who knows what is behind the doors, now has to open one of the two remaining doors, and the door he opens must have a goat behind it. If both remaining doors have goats behind them, he chooses one randomly. After Monty Hall opens a door with a goat, he will ask you to decide whether you want to stay with your first choice or to switch to the last remaining door. Imagine that you chose Door 1 and the host opens Door 3, which has a goat. He then asks you "Do you want to switch to Door Number 2?" Is it to your advantage to change your choice? (Krauss and Wang 2003:10)

Note that the player may initially choose any of the three doors (not just Door 1), that the host opens a different door revealing a goat (not necessarily Door 3), and that he gives the player a second choice between the two remaining unopened doors.

Solution

The overall probability of winning by switching is determined by the location of the car. According to the problem statement above, a car and two goats are arranged behind three doors and then the player initially picks a door. Assuming the player's initial pick is Door 1 (the same analysis applies for any other door the player picks):

• The player originally picked the door hiding the car. The game host must open one of the two remaining doors randomly.
• The car is behind Door 2 and the host must open Door 3.
• The car is behind Door 3 and the host must open Door 2.

Players who choose to switch win if the car is behind either of the two unchosen doors rather than the one that was originally picked. In two cases with 1/3 probability switching wins, so the overall probability of winning by switching is 2/3 as shown in the diagram below. In other words, there is a 2/3 chance of being wrong initially, and thus a 2/3 chance of being right when changing to the other door.

Car hidden behind Door 1		Car hidden behind Door 2	Car hidden behind Door 3
Player initially picks Door 1
Host opens either goat door		Host must open Door 3	Host must open Door 2
Switching loses with probability 1/6	Switching loses with probability 1/6	Switching wins with probability 1/3	Switching wins with probability 1/3
Switching loses with probability 1/3		Switching wins with probability 2/3

Source :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
Krauss, Stefan and Wang, X. T. (2003). "The Psychology of the Monty Hall Problem: Discovering Psychological Mechanisms for Solving a Tenacious Brain Teaser," Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 132(1). Retrieved from http://www.usd.edu/~xtwang/Papers/MontyHallPaper.pdf March 30, 2008.

human relationship are like Newtons third law, you spend more, u get back more.

Ok, i admit i am a quiet guy when in a group. Not that i am lazy to talk to, or shy to talk to, but because i often found the topic discussed not interesting, or people around not close enough to talk to.

Weeks ago i went to singapore and visit one of my friends there, although we only stay together for a couple of days before, however we are able to talk on many thing, like people we know, our job and path , etc.

But days before when i meet my ex-class mate, i felt that we are still like new meet stranger, struggle to find interesting common topic.

Ya, thats was me. I admit that i have spent little time communicate with my class mate, even my room mate also. It may be a bad habit which i bring from my daily living.

It may be time to change as i cannot go on like this when reached university level. But as tecsun said, after we separate from each other, we just get further and further away from each other. The only proof remained for our friendship is, when we got chance to meet, we will certainly meet and talk like we been together long.

Enclosed photo of my classmate, which i wouldn't know if dont get the scholarship, and maybe wouldn't meet again in my lifetime because of social and culture difference. Hope that wont happen.

"why so serious?" Clown, the dark knight.

a friend of mine complaint after viewing my blog that my blog is full of serious tone anywhere. As he said , a blog is popular only when it is either humor, or full of funny stuff. However, neither state can i achieve now, so for now , lets just move to some relaxing topic.

Days before i tried google my name as James McAvoy do in the movie " Wanted" . Surpisingly, my facebook details come up top. And when i google my chinese name , more results relating to me come up. However , i still cant get full details of mine as suggested by the book " The World is Flat".

Peopled said that someone can create title under wikipedia that defame others. I tried wiki myself and found no results. Hmm... Should i create title under my name?

( people say results from google and wikipedia reflects one popularity and famousness, looks like i am not popular and famous enough, LOL)

y 831 not 916?

As we both know, Malaysia was found on the date of september 16, not August 31 . However, as Malaya gained independent day at August 31, we , whether you are east malaysian or west Malaysia, both celebrate August 31 as our independence day and national day despite the fact that Malaysia was not even found on that day yet.

There may be several reason for that. First, as Malaysia political leaders, systems still concentrate on west Malaysia, the concept of Malaysia is defined based on west Malaysians point of view. Hence, it wouldn't be surprise as the west malaysian still thinking on themself that Malaysia ( not Malaya ) gained independence on August 31.

Second reason may be because of the conflicts between Malaysia and Singapore, Tunku Abdul Rahman and Lee Kuan Yew ( former singapore prime minister). When Malaysia was first found, the states include are Malaya, Singapore, Sabah and Sarawak. Tunku initially want to put the founding date to be august 31, which is his birthday or his lucky number. However due to certain problem, Tunku agreed to postponed the date to September 16 as suggested by Lee Kuan Yew, without knewing the fact that September 16 was Lee's birthday. Hence, it would be rather sarcastic if we celebrate lee's birthday, which once regarded as tunku and Malay's enemy in the past 60-an to 70-an.

Third reason maybe the ruling political party, UMNO, want to maintain their dominance trough emphasizing on independence of Malaya but not founding of Malaysia. As we both know, UMNO played a major role in pushing Malaya towards the independent state. However the founding of Malaysia would not be a success without the support and effort of the GERAKAN, sabah and sarawak's political leaders. Celebrating September 16 will some how weaken the political rightness for Umno to claimed the ruling of the nation as it no longer the sole core party in pushing Malaysia towards founding.

The fact that many Malaysians do not aware that september 16 is instead our national day bring worries that our thinking still remain on pre independence Malaya . Where what we care for is based on racial but the whole Malaysian. It wouldnt be surprise if the text books history, the sultanese system, political and diplomacy system are based on West Malaysian's . Opposed the fact that sabah and sarawak should have the equal rights and power not only on the surface, but also inside the content of Malaysia.

Hence, unless we put the importance of september 16 over august 31, the concept of " Malaysia for Malaysians " is just a dream.