Before GST , lets talk about Budget ....(1)

Malaysia is going to implement its first Good and Service Tax sooner or later. Before talking about the pros and cons . lets have a flashback on some facts, and roles of government.

Fact 1, Malaysia Gov budget is to be 190 billion rm, which acounts to 27 % of Gross National Income.

Fact 2, on the 12th consecutive year of budget deficit, the gov have a projected 5.6% budget deficit of Gross National Income, which equivalent to a mounting of 300 billion rm of national debit. ( each malaysian bear roughly rm 10,000 above. ) . In 2010 year, the gov spending on interest alone will be 16 billion rm.

Fact 3, According to DAP alternative budget 2010, the glowing budget deficit is due to uncontrolled fiscal discipline in 3 areas , namely expenditure to emolument ( namely payment and allowances etc for gov servant) from Rm 14.0 billion to RM 36.20 billion. and expenditure for supplies and service from RM 5.2 billion to RM　２５．９　billion, and expenditure for subsidy from RM 5.2 billion to RM 25.9 billion ( typo?)

Implication one, besides trimming out the fats hidden under the government budget ( ie, wasted and unnecessary expenditure) , to close the deficit , or reduce operating cost as DAP provisioned, we need to cut the crude oil subsidy from RM 33.0 billion to RM 13.0 billion....


Now lets do the Maths,
To have the power to propose those budget changes, DAP and Pakatan Rakyat have to win the General Election.
The DAP and Pakatan already winning support on majority of city dweller in the north Malysia, where people pay the taxes most and enjoy benefit least, according to the electoral structure in Malaysia, they need support from Johor, Sabah, Sarawak, Pahang and Terengganu. Places where the people pay less taxes and enjoy more benefit .

By taxes i mean tolls and income taxes and other etc, by enjoyment i mean petrol price subsidy and other subsidy etc....

Any proposed change to budget to control deficit will hurt a large amount of special interest group. Which surely vote for existing gov.

The Key is those people from remote area, terengganu, pahang, sabah and sarawak where their votes carry heavier weight than others, the DAP proposed to strip off the subsidy and replace it with a bracket of Social Welfare benefits instead. This message needs to be deliver clearly to the locals. Or else only the ist part of statement will be used by Gov as publicity. But the problem is, The Pakatan Rakyat is weak at local political organization in this area

And here came the Biggest problem, from what the outsider saw ( and it does ), Pakatan Rakyat is still a coalition formed based on political interests instead of common principle and vision. The pakatan was held largely due to the charisma of Ex- Deputy Anwar Ibrahim, and with his age and reputation falling ( due to the fallacy of 916 change of gov) , there is no clear energetic and powerful successor among the parties that can forged further the three party together. Not to mention PKR and DAP still lack the right inside structure to lure ambitious youth and talents.

And , Not to mention the Islamic nation visioned by PAS is indeed in conflict with the principle DAP held, without solving those internal and external problems, Pakatan Rakyat will still be a tool to broke Gov 2/3 majority in Parliament instead of an alternatives...

Most important, even if we somehow voted Pakatan Rakyat to be federal gov before they solved their problems, the risk of letting an unprepared party to rule is far dangerous. Take Taiwan Opposition party as example...