Before GST , lets talk about Budget ....(1)

Malaysia is going to implement its first Good and Service Tax sooner or later. Before talking about the pros and cons . lets have a flashback on some facts, and roles of government.

Fact 1, Malaysia Gov budget is to be 190 billion rm, which acounts to 27 % of Gross National Income.

Fact 2, on the 12th consecutive year of budget deficit, the gov have a projected 5.6% budget deficit of Gross National Income, which equivalent to a mounting of 300 billion rm of national debit. ( each malaysian bear roughly rm 10,000 above. ) . In 2010 year, the gov spending on interest alone will be 16 billion rm.

Fact 3, According to DAP alternative budget 2010, the glowing budget deficit is due to uncontrolled fiscal discipline in 3 areas , namely expenditure to emolument ( namely payment and allowances etc for gov servant) from Rm 14.0 billion to RM 36.20 billion. and expenditure for supplies and service from RM 5.2 billion to RM　２５．９　billion, and expenditure for subsidy from RM 5.2 billion to RM 25.9 billion ( typo?)

Implication one, besides trimming out the fats hidden under the government budget ( ie, wasted and unnecessary expenditure) , to close the deficit , or reduce operating cost as DAP provisioned, we need to cut the crude oil subsidy from RM 33.0 billion to RM 13.0 billion....


Now lets do the Maths,
To have the power to propose those budget changes, DAP and Pakatan Rakyat have to win the General Election.
The DAP and Pakatan already winning support on majority of city dweller in the north Malysia, where people pay the taxes most and enjoy benefit least, according to the electoral structure in Malaysia, they need support from Johor, Sabah, Sarawak, Pahang and Terengganu. Places where the people pay less taxes and enjoy more benefit .

By taxes i mean tolls and income taxes and other etc, by enjoyment i mean petrol price subsidy and other subsidy etc....

Any proposed change to budget to control deficit will hurt a large amount of special interest group. Which surely vote for existing gov.

The Key is those people from remote area, terengganu, pahang, sabah and sarawak where their votes carry heavier weight than others, the DAP proposed to strip off the subsidy and replace it with a bracket of Social Welfare benefits instead. This message needs to be deliver clearly to the locals. Or else only the ist part of statement will be used by Gov as publicity. But the problem is, The Pakatan Rakyat is weak at local political organization in this area

And here came the Biggest problem, from what the outsider saw ( and it does ), Pakatan Rakyat is still a coalition formed based on political interests instead of common principle and vision. The pakatan was held largely due to the charisma of Ex- Deputy Anwar Ibrahim, and with his age and reputation falling ( due to the fallacy of 916 change of gov) , there is no clear energetic and powerful successor among the parties that can forged further the three party together. Not to mention PKR and DAP still lack the right inside structure to lure ambitious youth and talents.

And , Not to mention the Islamic nation visioned by PAS is indeed in conflict with the principle DAP held, without solving those internal and external problems, Pakatan Rakyat will still be a tool to broke Gov 2/3 majority in Parliament instead of an alternatives...

Most important, even if we somehow voted Pakatan Rakyat to be federal gov before they solved their problems, the risk of letting an unprepared party to rule is far dangerous. Take Taiwan Opposition party as example...

无关财富， 谈谈外汇储备这东西。

这么说吧， 我们对外汇储备的有限知识是， 97年东南亚金融危机， 由于马来西亚没有足够的外汇储备来应对国际炒家的抛售， 于是马币大幅贬值， 随之而来的股市暴跌， 造成人们的财富缩水。
因此， 结论是外汇储备对维持一国的货币汇率很重要。

东南亚货币在97金融危机后的严重贬值， 反而给货币政策制定者意外发现货币被严重低估的好处。 那就是，
吸引外资流入设厂， 本国产品在国际市场上更有竞争力， 因此能生产出比自己能消费的还要多很多的商品， 进而从制造业开始， 创造工作机会， 拉动经济增长。
我们称之为， 出口为导向的经济。 主要例子是， 中国， 马来西亚， 泰国， 印尼等。

那么， 外汇储备怎么来？
外资要进入某个国家， 比如说马来西亚好了， 它要在马来西亚买本地制造的商品， 只能使用本地流通的货币--零吉。
问题来了， 外资本身没有办法用实物换零吉（那等于是进口， 把东西拿到马来西亚去卖) , 他们能做的， 是把手中有购买力的货币（比如说美金， 欧元）， 然后拿到马来西亚国家银行， 或者商业银行里去换成 零吉。
在这里要注意的是， 只有国家银行的外汇资产， 才是外汇储备。 而商业银行自己持有的外汇资产， 不算外汇储备。

如果一国的外汇市场是自由浮动的， 那么在一个国家严重出超（出口大于进口， 贸易严重顺差）的情况下， 由于零吉的数量有限， 于是在外资哄抢的情况下， 渐渐的一美金， 一欧元所能换的零吉会越来越少， 也就是说 零吉的汇率会升值. 假定马来西亚生产的货物以零吉为标价的价格不变， 这意味着我们的货物在国际市场变贵了， 国际市场的货物对我们来说变便宜了。 于是出口会减少， 入口会增加， ，马来西亚的国际贸易收支会趋向平衡。 然而这对制造业的就业来说， 不一定是件好事

于是有些国家会实行固定汇率， 既不管国家的经济状况如何， 国家银行（中央银行）都会以固定的汇率去兑换零吉给美金持有者。 前面说过， 如果汇率兑换是在商业银行发生的， 那么就不算国家的外汇储备。 可是在国家贸易出超的情况下， 马币的实际汇率 会升值， 这样的情况下， 如果商业银行把到手的美金拿去国家银行的柜台兑换， 就能换到比市场更多的零吉。 同样道理， 任何人如果把到手的美金拿到国家银行的柜台去兑换， 都能换到比市场上自由兑换更多的零吉， 于是大家都用美金和国家银行换零吉， 我们的外汇储备， 就这样累积。

现在回头看看97年的金融风暴， 当马币的币值被高估的时候， 为了维持马币的高币值， 国家银行愿意以一美金来收购2.5马币。 炒家们， 甚至是商家发现用马币和国家银行换美金比较划算， 于是纷纷把钱（或者说借来的马币）拿到国家银行的柜台去换美金， 于是外汇储备急剧减少。 同时， 由于我国没有美金的印刷权， 国家银行要应对前来兑换的民众， 只有用实际上贬值的马币（假设是3零吉换1美金）在国际市场上兑换美金， 再用换回来的美金换给炒家以维持货币的汇率。 其结果， 是加剧了外汇储备枯竭之余，更使国家银行面临亏损

国家银行面对的亏损， 不管是因为马币估值过高， 或是马币估值过低而发生的， 这亏损并不会凭空消失， 终究会要资产来偿还。 国家银行创造资产的方式只有一种， 那就是印钞票。 印钞票的后果是什么？ 通货膨胀。 所以不管币值高估还是低估了， 都不是件好事。 只是因为通货膨胀的效果是隐形的， 而币值调整， 不管是从高价滑落带来的国际购买力缩水， 或是由低价攀高带来的制造业的打击都是显形的， 所以各国政府都在纷纷维持过高或过低的汇率。

出口拉动的经济成长实在吗？ 再回头看， 当一个国家严重顺差的时候， 他做的东西， 其实是用自己千辛万苦生产出来的实物， 换来一堆花绿绿的美金。 问题是美金这个东西不能吃， 不能当衣服盖， 也不能当电脑用。 再加上现在美国发现只要多印美金， 就能用美金拿到出口为导向的国家换来实实在在的货物。 这种不用劳作就能享受的交易实在太好康了， 导致他们欲罢不能。 于是美金的价值一直在下跌，马来西亚辛苦劳作换来得绿纸，到头来发现堆积的green back ( 美元 ）还不保值。。。。

多元化我们的外汇储备， 我们这么叫嚷着。 然而只要国家贸易顺差的现实不变， 不管我们最后换来的是美金， 欧元还是日元， 储备货币会缩水的这个特点依然不会变。 关键还是回到促进进口， 也就是乘储备货币价值缩水前把钱用出去。 而促进进口的最佳方法， 是让零吉汇率合理的跟随市场的步伐升值。 虽然这意味着， 那些以外国货币领津贴的奖学金留学生回国度假的日子不会这么好过。。。。

Cutting Carbon emmission among developed, a prisoner Dilemma...

If you noticed European Union Target for cut of carbon emmission, you might came across the following weirdo:

The European union promises to cut 20 % o carbon emission by 1990 level, and 30% if other Wealth Nation follow suits.

I called that Prisoner Dilemma, recalled from wikipedia

" Two suspects are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for conviction, and, having separated both prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal. If one testifies (defects from the other) for the prosecution against the other and the other remains silent (cooperates with the other), the betrayer goes free and the silent accomplice receives the full 10-year sentence. If both remain silent, both prisoners are sentenced to only six months in jail for a minor charge. If each betrays the other, each receives a five-year sentence. Each prisoner must choose to betray the other or to remain silent. Each one is assured that the other would not know about the betrayal before the end of the investigation. How should the prisoners act? "

To Cut Carbon emission, you either need to change your lifestyle, using greener alternative source to generate electricity, and replacing old, carbon intensified machine and devices with a new one. These total package of 'Green technology ' dont come cheap , and sometimes many time more expensive than conventional technology.
Hence, to force the society to adopt the 'Green Technology' , governments have only two way.

One is to heavily subsidized the green technology , by research funding, promised electricity price buying and so on. But given the large scale of the Green technology needed for adoption to cut carbon emission, this would be very costly. ( Think of amount of rm spent on petrol subsidized in Malaysia. )

Another is to raise the market price of conventional technology, through tax on carbon emission fuels ( Petroleum) , tighter emission control on machine and devices,
and a cap and trade system, etc. As a results, consumer force to paid directly in order to meet carbon emission target. And industries hurt because higher market price for technology means losing competitiveness.

Thus came the scenario now facing, if only European Union taking the steps toward carbon emission cuts, it industry lose while other developed countries industrial thrilling because their cost of production cheaper. Hence came the prisoner dilemma, either everyone cooperates, ( promise to cut carbon emission) , hence reducing burden on industrial each countries beared. or everyone defects, leaving carbon emission cut a cheap talk.

And , till now, the biggest player, USA , still showing stronger sign of defecting instead of cooperating. Thats the biggest problem...

Happy New Year n some interesting video....

From youtube, Pranav Mistry : The thrilling potential of SixthSense technology, talking about how technology enable us to interact with digital world in physical world without the classic ' computer ' framework, at a publicly affordable cost.

Things about opencourseware......

It actually starts with University of Tübingen in Germany.

It only became popular with the launch of MIT OpenCourseWare at MIT in October 2002...

It was made able thanks to advance of internet technology, such as server, bandwidth etc.

Till now, not so many University offer its courseware content free online....

Most of the university that offer OCW(open courseware) was based in America....

Even so, content shared is still limited.... ( i.e. video lecture limited to certain course and certain lecture only )

For some course( like humanities or socialogy) , open discussion in class still the best way to learn.

Non of Uk top university offer open courseware to the public....

今夜失眠， 浅谈南北大道。财政赤字，公积金局， 火红的股市。

如果你是政府， 想要为人民建造一条道路， 可是财力有限（只能建半条）， 又不甘愿举债( 等于导致预算案赤字 ）。
很自然的选择， 是委托私人财团去建路。

如果你是私人财团， 接到这个委托， 你当然要做一个模型来预测是否能赚钱。 问题一， 相同的例子并不多。
问题二， 当时路上的汽车数量有限， 会使用道路的人群也有限。 问题三， 关于大道使用量的增长充满着不确定性。

于是， 必然的， 政府必须给私人财团一些担保， 以让它们能够赚钱。 这些担保包括了， 低息贷款， 初期成本补贴， 后期的盈利保证等。

可是问题来了， 一， 如果要确保能够盈利的话， 为什么政府不干脆接管?
(答案， 以多国国营企业的效率表明， 这在操作上有很大麻烦。 ）

那政府能不能成为南北大道公司股东， 分享红利？
答案：政府已经这样做了。 国库控股20%， 国库控股独资子公司马友乃德40%， 公积金局10%。 所以当政府赔偿南北大道， 或者人们缴大道过路费时， 其实是从自己的右手把钱转给自己的左手。

关于财政赤字。
97年后， 政府连年财政赤字。

一些数据，
马来西亚的GDP估计为2000亿美金（08年 wikipedia 数据）
政府支出2000亿令吉(09)。赤字GDP的4。8%， 那大概是700-800亿零吉。

国家银行显示国债为3500亿零吉左右。 换句话说， 每个马来西亚人负债1万四千零吉左右。
其中， 公积金局总投资3400亿， 其中960亿在政府债卷， 1370亿在私人债卷上， 另有880亿投资在股市上。

债卷的利息， 这几年一直在稳定下降中， 一方面是国家银行利率政策使然， 一方面是存款增多（比如公积金局的）。 所以决定公积金局投资报酬的， 是股市。

所以你知道在综指跌倒800点时，政府为什么要成立Value Cap 救市吧?

关于火红的股市，
从三月800点到现在1200点， 马来西亚的经济并没有好转（9月出口和入口都下跌了20%).
可是，
1。M3的货币来到了9300亿。
2。 公积金存款增多， 投资股市是一个必然的选择。
3。 银行利率低落， 相比之下， 股市提供的年利率回酬就是一个更合理的选择。
结论， 和今年年初做出的不同， 股市长期走稳， 直到市场发现和现实（股息， 经济指标）相差太远时。

最后， 关于公积金局，
当公积金局的存款数额上升率比通货膨胀+经济增长快时， 投资回报率下跌是个必然的结果，
能承接投资的， 剩下三个安全的地方。
政府债卷， 私人债卷， 以及股市。

于是， 要吗， 政府继续财政赤字， 制造更多债卷，
或私人界发行更多的债卷，而这取决于大范围的经济增长。
或股市持续增长。

潜台词，
一， 游资过剩
二， 短期间内政府收缩赤字， 实现财政盈余是不可能的。
三， 政府， 公积金会继续支撑股市， 经济。

One of the few times, we are better than Singaporean, ( one of the few times only....)

There is these two economists called Raymond Fishman and Edward Miguel.
They had written a book name Economic Gangsters---Corruption , Violence and the poverty of Nations. .

They tried to find some ingenious way to measure a country's culture against corruption, for example, giving some people from the country with a law break immunity and see how will they act according to it.

The measures, taken for UN diplomats in highly congested New York city, to see how much parking violation the Diplomats from each country commit.

As a results, our neighbour Singaporean , ends up with 3.6 violations per diplomats.
While we, Malaysian, proudly commit violations of 1.4 per diplomats.

Although the corruption index for singapore is -2.50 during time of measures and Malaysian is -0.73 ( the more negative the better ) .

And, skipped the money if you want to bought the book as it just academic reports only.... :)