Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Cutting Carbon emmission among developed, a prisoner Dilemma...

If you noticed European Union Target for cut of carbon emmission, you might came across the following weirdo:

The European union promises to cut 20 % o carbon emission by 1990 level, and 30% if other Wealth Nation follow suits.

I called that Prisoner Dilemma, recalled from wikipedia

" Two suspects are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for conviction, and, having separated both prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal. If one testifies (defects from the other) for the prosecution against the other and the other remains silent (cooperates with the other), the betrayer goes free and the silent accomplice receives the full 10-year sentence. If both remain silent, both prisoners are sentenced to only six months in jail for a minor charge. If each betrays the other, each receives a five-year sentence. Each prisoner must choose to betray the other or to remain silent. Each one is assured that the other would not know about the betrayal before the end of the investigation. How should the prisoners act? "

To Cut Carbon emission, you either need to change your lifestyle, using greener alternative source to generate electricity, and replacing old, carbon intensified machine and devices with a new one. These total package of 'Green technology ' dont come cheap , and sometimes many time more expensive than conventional technology.
Hence, to force the society to adopt the 'Green Technology' , governments have only two way.

One is to heavily subsidized the green technology , by research funding, promised electricity price buying and so on. But given the large scale of the Green technology needed for adoption to cut carbon emission, this would be very costly. ( Think of amount of rm spent on petrol subsidized in Malaysia. )

Another is to raise the market price of conventional technology, through tax on carbon emission fuels ( Petroleum) , tighter emission control on machine and devices,
and a cap and trade system, etc. As a results, consumer force to paid directly in order to meet carbon emission target. And industries hurt because higher market price for technology means losing competitiveness.

Thus came the scenario now facing, if only European Union taking the steps toward carbon emission cuts, it industry lose while other developed countries industrial thrilling because their cost of production cheaper. Hence came the prisoner dilemma, either everyone cooperates, ( promise to cut carbon emission) , hence reducing burden on industrial each countries beared. or everyone defects, leaving carbon emission cut a cheap talk.

And , till now, the biggest player, USA , still showing stronger sign of defecting instead of cooperating. Thats the biggest problem...

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